A lot of money is going on Jake Paul late ahead of his super fight with Mike Tyson tomorrow on Netflix and the experts weigh in below.
Teddy Atlas knows Tyson well having trained him in his early days, as does he know boxing like the back of his hand.
Ahead of the fight tomorrow Atlas and his colleague on his podcast said:
“Let’s start right at the top: Mike Tyson vs. Jake Paul—an interesting fight between youth and experience. First of all, it’s not often that you see a 30-year age difference in boxing. Tyson is 58, and Paul is 28. One guy was a great fighter, and the other, love him or hate him, deserves credit. Jake Paul came from the YouTube world, had a vision, and is now realizing it. He’s taking his ideas and turning them into reality. He works hard to become the best fighter he can be, and he’s not disrespecting the sport. In fact, he’s very smart—he’s a great businessman. Yes, he picked his spots and fought UFC fighters, but there was risk involved. These were real fights, even if the opponents were older or smaller. There was always a chance he could get hit or hurt, and yet he trained hard and showed respect for the sport. Now, he’s making a lot of money and has proven himself as a savvy businessman. He’s even brought his journey to Netflix, a brilliant move. Give him credit.
As for Mike Tyson—he’s one of the greatest heavyweight champions of all time. But now, he’s involved in these events, which don’t quite follow traditional pro rules. You’ve got two-minute rounds instead of three-minute rounds, 14-ounce gloves instead of 10-ounce gloves, but they’re still calling it a pro fight. Look, I’m not here to criticize; Tyson deserves to make money—this is a money grab, but he’s earned the right to do it. There are plenty of money grabs out there, but if people are willing to buy it, then they’ve earned the right to make it. Tyson’s a pioneer in this space, and this is the first time we’ve seen a fight like this on Netflix. So, props to him.
Now, as for the fight itself: if it’s legit—no WWE-style scripting—I think Tyson could be dangerous in the first round. I’ve seen the short clips, and yeah, they look good. They’re supposed to look good; that’s why they put them out there. But there’s a part of me that wonders if it’s all really on the up and up. I don’t have any evidence to say it’s not, but I still wonder if there’s a WWE twist to it. I don’t think it is, but I’m just saying… I wonder.
If it’s a legitimate fight, I think Tyson could knock Jake Paul out in the first round. For the people out there who want to take a small risk, I’d say take the under—if Tyson’s going to win, it’s likely going to be early. Tyson is 58 years old, and he’s probably got a better chance of landing something big early in the fight.
As for the betting lines, here’s what you need to know. Jake Paul is the favorite at -220, and Mike Tyson is the underdog at +175. There’s also a prop bet for whether the fight will go the distance: Yes is +240, No is -200.
Let’s talk about that line for a minute. When’s the last time Mike Tyson was a 2-to-1 underdog? It’s been a long time. Sure, at the end of his career, Tyson wasn’t the same fighter, but this is still Mike Tyson, a former world champion—people are going to think about taking him, especially at those odds. But, and this is important, bookmakers are very smart. They know exactly what they’re doing. They’re offering those odds for a reason. It’s like when you see a football game line that looks too good to be true—they’re tempting you to go one way, but you should probably go the other. So, if you’re looking at this, it might be a trap.
If I had to pick, I’d go with Jake Paul, just based on those odds and how the lines are set up. But if we’re talking about a legitimate fight, Tyson definitely has the chance to win early. He’s dangerous in the first round, and if Paul isn’t careful, Tyson could catch him with something big.
If I were in Jake Paul’s corner, I’d tell him to control the outside, use his jab, but be smart about it. Don’t throw it too slow, and don’t leave yourself open for a counter right hand. Tyson is very good at making people miss and then making them pay, so Paul will need to be smart with his jab—throw it at the right range, and maybe use some feints to get Tyson off balance. I’d tell Paul to look for an opening for a big right hand, but only after setting it up with the jab. If he can control the distance and make Tyson lead, he might catch him with a clean shot.
For Tyson, I’d say stick to what you know—use your defense to create offense, make Paul miss, and make him pay. Tyson has always thrown punches with bad intentions, and that’s what he needs to do here. If he can land something early, he might get Jake out of there.
As for the prop bets: Jake Paul by knockout is -105, Tyson by knockout is +250, Jake Paul by decision is +370, and Tyson by decision is +900. If this is all scripted like WWE, I don’t think Tyson’s going to let himself get knocked out, but if it’s a real fight, I think Jake Paul by decision is a solid bet. He’s younger, more disciplined, and probably going to control the pace after the first few rounds. That’s how I see it.
In summary: Tyson’s got a chance early, but if it goes past the first couple of rounds, I’d favor Paul. And again, if I had to bet, I’d go with Jake Paul, just based on how everything’s lining up.”
After it was revealed this week that Tyson nearly died earlier this year and as perceived by some, Tyson not looking good at the workouts yesterday, Tyson is an even bigger underdog than ever now.
At 58-years-old though Tyson has been to dark places in his life and knows the benefit of not letting everything slip, and, workouts are only that, public workouts, they mean nothing.
Tyson if he uses the jab early and can land knows that Paul, a YouTuber, who has never been in a professional heavyweight fight, will have not been hit with that kind of power before.
Soon enough the world will see if Tyson can stun it once more and as the biggest underdog in a major boxing event in recent years, and, now in particular, on the eve of the fight, is perhaps worth more value now than ever for those inclined to favor him.
Tomorrow will see something that boxing or sport never has, ever.
A live streamed global event on Netflix.
Great for boxing.
Another win.
Roll on.
